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MINNEAPOLIS (WCCO) — Almost 50 million Americans filled out March Madness brackets last year — and no one has ever reported guessing every game correctly.
More so, only a few of you will come in first, second or third in your pool.
So, what makes guessing so hard? We spoke with Tim Chartier, the Joseph P. Morton Professor of Mathematics and Computer Science at Davidson College in North Carolina.
He teaches data analytics, and actually created a model called “March MATHness” to predict the tournament winners.
“There is a lot to be said for strength of schedule, and then it’s also how you play on the road,” Chartier said.
He says don’t try for the perfect bracket. The odds of that if you just guess are 1 in 9 quintillion — which is nine with 18 zeros after it. That’s worse odds than winning the Powerball twice.
On average, people guess about 70% of games correctly. What his model tries to do is get someone an extra one to two percentage points.
“A side of what we’re doing, whether we like it or not, is trying to predict how 18 to 22 year olds are going to perform under a lot of pressure,” he said. “We’re trying to predict the human spirit in a very pressurey situation.”
So, are people who know more about college basketball more likely to win? Chartier says no.
“Because sports fans will actually change their math models,” he said.
Source: CBS Minnesota
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